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With nine goals in his initial seven league matches, City forward Erling Haaland has started the season with incredible momentum.

Even though this doesn't represent his most impressive beginning to a campaign - he scored 11 goals in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it still puts him with a three-goal lead in the opening stages for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The reality that zero of his nine conversions have been from the penalty spot renders it particularly impressive.

Why Haaland Stands Out

Naturally, injury could definitively intervene in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is such a strong favourite for the prize so early in the season.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the total and standard of scoring opportunities he's creating.

And second, the sluggish beginning his usual rivals for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) signifies how many goals a English league attacker has typically netted from the total and standard of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a statistic haphazardly selected by statistical experts, but by historical Premier League data.

Upon reviewing at players' xG in the Premier League so far this season from normal play, the Norwegian striker is receiving significantly more quality chances to find the net than anyone else.

In fact, even if Haaland wasn't superior at converting opportunities than any other player in the division, he would still have scored significantly more goals as the remainder of the league.

Chance Creation Breakdown

That is demonstrated by examining the number and quality of chances that footballers have received in the top flight so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, a dozen more than any other player.

This is actually not that remarkable for him - he had actually taken more open-play attempts at this point in the most recent two terms (30 in last season and 34 in 2024-25).

What is, however remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this season. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the attempts he's taken at a rate of 27%.

Regarding attackers registering at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to convert per attempt - thanks to a couple of tap-ins against West Ham and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG per effort he had at the start of last season.

Essentially, the scoring situations he has had in this campaign have been notably easier to find the net from in a reorganised City team than those at the beginning of last season.

Historical Comparison

Starting a season so strongly is, as previously stated, typical for Haaland. Post seven fixtures last campaign he had netted ten times - four more than anyone else and six more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Anfield star who won the Golden Boot with 29 goals, a touchdown more than the Manchester City striker.

During the current term, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this stage last season.

In fact this has been the quietest start to a Premier League season the Pharaohs star has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. If we look at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has scored as many goals as the additional ten attackers put together so far.

Whether due to fitness issues - Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer and Jorgen Strand Larsen - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or just due to the fact that their clubs have faced difficulties (multiple established scorers), Haaland's potential challengers in the contest for the top scorer award have failed to perform so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the European Golden Shoe that is given to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That race is significantly tighter at this initial phase because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have similarly opened in superb fashion, with 11 and 9 conversions correspondingly.

The fact Haaland has registered multiple conversions and has the greatest expected goals of the three players without yet taking any from the penalty spot renders him the frontrunner.

Yet given that the two continental superstars are two of the best converters in continental soccer in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the race is certainly on.